The true cash value of all 8 welcome bonuses

0 0

All the biggest sites in U.S. sports betting have made their way into North Carolina in the last two weeks. And they’re all offering better promotions in NC than what they have available in other states.

Thousands of dollars are promised from these apps, but are you really getting thousands in cash? Not exactly. There are four main types of welcome offers from U.S. sportsbooks, and they all work a little differently. We’ll explain the four types, plus how much cash on average you can expect to win by using them, and a bit on how to use them optimally.

Promoted value vs. true cash value of NC betting apps

Sportsbook Offer Max Promoted Value Actual Estimated Value*
1. Fanatics Sportsbook $1,000 bet match $1,000 $545
2. Underdog NC $1,000 first bet mulligan $1,000 $400
3. bet365 NC $200 bonus bets or $1,000 first bet insurance $1,000 $400
4. ESPN BET NC Bet anything, get $225 + $500 max deposit match (now 10% cashback rate) $725 $408*
5. DraftKings NC Bet $5, get $250 $250 $150
6. FanDuel NC Bet $5, get $250 $250 $150
7. Caesars NC Bet $10, get $250 $250 $150
8. BetMGM NC Bet $5, get $150 $150 $90

*Estimating the true maximum cash value of these offers

Sportsbooks often promise big bonuses through first bet insurance offers or deposit matches, but what are they actually worth? We do our best to break it down below.

Bonus bets: If you optimize your bonus bets by betting plus-money underdogs in the +300 to +500 range, over the long run you’ll convert about 60-70% of your bonus bets into cash. So $200 in bonus bets can be worth ~$130. Most people won’t use bonus bets optimally, however, so sportsbooks only pay out about 30% of all bonus bets. So $200 in bonus bets costs them about $60.

Insurance: These first bet offers are tricky to value — if you make a $1,000 first bet at +250 and it wins, you’ve won $2,500. If your first bet loses, then your ensuing bonus bets lose, you can be left with $0.

There is a hedging method that will lock in about $400 from a $1,000 first bet. It’s a big investment, since you need to bet more than $4,000 on the opposite side of your $1,000 first bet, so most people won’t do it. But I think it’s fair to call the cash value about 40% of the insurance amount.

Deposit match: Most deposit matches come with a rollover or play-through requirement. This means that you can’t just deposit, get a match, and then immediately withdraw.

Some matches have bigger rollovers than others. We estimate the value to be the max offered, minus the money you’d lose if you hit 50% of your bets reaching the rollover requirement, assuming those bets are all -110.

Take the ESPN BET deposit match. Say you max it out by depositing $250 and get $500 in Eligible Cashback. It comes with a 10x rollover, meaning you must wager $5,000 total ($500 x 10) over your first 30 days to get the full match.

If you made 50, $100 wagers all at -110 and went 25-25, you’d lose about $227 in cash making those bets on average, but you’d earn the $500. So the deposit match, by this estimation anyway, is really only worth about $273. With ESPN BET, at least you are getting actual cash and not bonus bets.

Bet match: Similar to the deposit match, think about what it would cost you to earn the max match, and assume your bets hit at 50% rate.

If you make 10, $100 bets at Fanatics and go 5-5, you’ll lose about $55 in cash. But you’ll get $1,000 in bonus bets. It’s no guarantee you go 5-5, but that’s what we’ll use as an estimate.

Assuming you turn your $1,000 bonus bets into 60% cash, you’ll earn $600, minus the $55 you lost, for $545 cash.

1. Fanatics Sportsbook Promo: $1,000 bet match

At Fanatics, you’ll get a $100 bet match for 10 days, totaling $1,000 potential FanCash: For your first 10 days on the platform, your first bet of the day will be matched in FanCash, up to $100. So if you place a $100 bet as your first bet on Day 1, you’ll get $100, if you place a $25 bet, you’ll get $25.

The bet match is of course higher value, if you bet the max $100 each day and stick with it for all 10 days. As we detailed above, we estimate this offer at about $545 in cash if you max it out.

Even if you go 5-5 on those $100 bets, you’ll lose about $55 in cash, but you’ll have $1,000 in bonus bets. And if you turn those bonus bets into cash at a 60% rate, you’ll have a little over $550 in cash at the end.

2. Underdog Promo: $1,000 mulligan on your first bet

As we detailed above, if you max out a $1,000 insurance bet and hedge it against another book, it’s worth about $400 in cash. We don’t necessarily recommend that, but I think it’s a fair way to measure the value.

3. bet365: $200 or $1,000 first bet insurance

bet365 offers a choice between two sign-up bonuses in all states, including North Carolina. Use bet365 bonus code NYPNEWS and select either a $1,000 first bet safety net or grab the bet $5, get $200 offer.

  • The $1,000 first bet safety net refunds you in bonus bets equal to what you lost, if your first bet loses.
  • The bet get gives you $200 after a $5 wager (just make sure your first bet is at odds of -500 or longer, meaning -400 is OK but -600 is not).

As we’ve covered above, the $1,000 first bet if you max it out can be worth about $400 in cash over a large sample. So if plan on maxing it out, take the insurance, but if you just want some bonus bets, take the $200.

4. ESPN BET Promo Code: Get $225 and $500 deposit match

ESPN BET has two parts to its offer, and the true value has increased

  • Use ESPN BET promo code NPNEWSNC to get $225 in bonus bets after any cash waer.
  • No matter what, you’ll also get up to $500 in eligible cashback with your first deposit. Whatever you put in, you’ll get 200% extra, up to $500.

The cashback unlocks slowly, 10% at a time, and you only have 30 days to unlock it all. We estimate the deposit match is worth more like $222, because you’ll slowly lose juice as you bet against the wagering requirement. That’s up significantly with the now 10% cashback rate; it had been 5% last week.

5. FanDuel Promo: Bet $5, get $250

FanDuel’s offer is simple — just deposit $10, bet $5, and you’ll get $250 in bonus bets.

There’s no promo code needed to claim this offer.

6. DraftKings: Bet $5, get $250

For new users, DraftKings offers the same deal as FanDuel: bet $5 and get $250 in bonus bets.

7. Caesars Sportsbook Promo Code: Bet $10, get $250

With promo code NYPNEWSNC, you’ll get five, $50 bonus bets after just a $10 wager. Make sure your first bet is $10+, or else you’ll forfeit the offer.

8. BetMGM Promo Code: $150 bonus bets

BetMGM bonus code NYPNEWS will earn you $150 in bonus bets after a $5 wager.

Those bonus bets come back in six increments of $25, and you’ll have seven days to use the bonus bets.

You may also like...